Creation of a new “Strategic Agenda for the Middle East to expand diplomatic, trade, and security cooperation”. The US-led agreement signed between UAE and Israel on 13th August 2020 came to be known as the “Abraham Accord” named because of the representation of three Abrahamian religions Islam, Judaism, and Christianity. This accord will bring the way towards normalization and will enhance regional cooperation against regional threats. This is an important accord for Trump Administration that’s the reason he expedited the process to use as leverage in the coming November presidential elections. This accord solely means “getting something over nothing” and states that Israel will suspend annexation in the west bank. However PM Netanyahu persistently insists that suspension is temporary means it can be done later, other Muslim countries look at this as irreparable harm to the prospect of a two-state solution.

WHY ACCORD WAS BROUGHT URGENTLY?

To gain regional, political and strategic interests this accord was rather brought urgently and gives victory to Muhammad Bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, Muhammad bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, and Prime Minister of Israel Netanyahu, and President Donald Trump.

Following are the reasons:

1. UAE’s unpopularity with Democrats brought UAE leadership on the bad side of Obama Barack in past but relieved when Trump came into power and compels to look helpful and constructive to Biden.
2. Bin Salman has the same objective too who wants to ameliorate relations with Democrats, wants to show & create a popular opinion that he does not violently silence the dissensions, and proves to be a constructive and moderate leader.
3. Netanyahu benefits the most, by diverting the attention from the mishandling of the Covid-19 pandemic, avoiding hostility with other Arab countries, and last but not least he wants to prove himself as a statesman on the world stage.
4. Whereas Trump wants to prove to his gullible followers that he avoided further hostilities in the Middle East and brought peace though he is not a warmonger but a good statesman to Make America Great Again (MAGA, Trump’s slogan for the USA)

MAJOR SHIFT IN THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE MIDDLE EAST

This trend is not new to us because Egypt, Algeria, and Qatar have already developed diplomatic relations with Israel. Muslim World countries have bent down to the knee in front of a strong American ally and just play word game. Turkey which has not only diplomatic but active military participation with Israel has vociferously condemned this Abraham Accord. Following accord, it is widely expected that other Arab Countries like Bahrain and Oman may also bend down and develop relations.

Egypt along with other Arab countries and India have welcomed the accord while Turkey has threatened to cut off diplomatic relations with its long-standing friends and security partners since 1949.

PAKISTAN’S FOREIGN POLICY

Whereas Pakistan’s foreign policy is yet ambiguous because the neighboring country Iran has condemned and said it may revive proxies as happened during the cold war. Pakistan has a sizeable population of the Shia sect and after a long time, relations have taken the path to betterment. Iran and Pakistan are now attracting economic options as Iran are willing to participate in China’s Belt and Road Initiative even though China is also taking interest as she has decided to invest in Chabhar port by investing $400 million. Despite that Pakistan has a special relationship with Saudi Arabia too so Pakistani foreign policymakers have to keep a fine balance.

PALESTINE

This accord will bring a major shift as Palestine regard this as a “Treacherous stab in the back” on the other hand UAE claims this deal is a “win-win situation”. Whereas in reality, this accord is to counter Iranian influence in the region which they say acts as destabilizing and politicizing Sunni & Shiite religious factors.

Normally any truce or treaty is done when such conflict arises as Camp David accords signed by Egypt in 1979 and the Oslo accord in 1994 with Jordon but this accord is a real success for Tel Aviv because no such conflict was present between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and this will alter the stalemate in the region and possibly compels other Muslim countries to follow the suit, especially Bahrain and Oman by using annexation as an excuse to forge an alliance because West Bank is already annexed and more than 0.6 million Israelis are settled down.

IRANIAN FACTOR

Iranian insecurity is increased as she lacks any proper ally in the region to survive and tarnishes the dream of Ayatollah of becoming a leader in the middle east, this accord may revive the proxies and may affect oil supply as the Strait of Hormuz is the choke point from where 20pc of oil is supplied to the globe.

And the major issue to be under discussion is nuclear arsenal security as Iran is busy making herself nuclear-capable. Now it is not Arabs who threaten Isreal but Iran who threatens Israel’s existence so to bring long-term peace US must bring Iran to the peace table because Iran has animosity with both Arabs and Israel. It has prevailed that Iran is funding, training, and promoting anti-Israeli forces like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad to destabilize Israel.

CONCLUSION

To cap it all, this accord is the clear message of Israel’s acceptance by the Gulf States which will divide the Muslim world into two blocs. One bloc which has a rivalry with Iran will be more powerful and highly obstructive to Iran and will drag it down to warring factions. The second is obvious which stands for the Palestinian’s right and calls this accord “strategic stupidity” and betrayal as UAE did to Libya, Syria, and Yemen.

Readings

1. Abraham accord: A Stab for Palestine or a grab for UAE and Israel  – Modern Diplomacy
2. How the Abraham Accord Might Impact the Middle East – VOA News
3. The “Abraham accord” – Daily Times
4. Iran and the Palestinians Lose Out in the Abraham Accords – The Atlantic
5. ABRAHAM ACCORD Tip Of The Iceberg? – JWT Magazine